For nine months, the dominant narrative of the Thailand-Cambodia border conflict has been one of mutual blame: two countries, two sets of grievances, two sides to every story. Thai media calls Cambodia "Scambodia." Cambodian officials call Thailand an occupier. Western coverage splits the difference and moves on.
This investigation — drawing on analysis from CSIS, Human Rights Watch, the Council on Foreign Relations, the Atlantic Council, FinCEN, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, and more than 80 additional sources — finds that this framing is wrong. Not because Cambodia is innocent. It isn't. But because the scale, nature, and legality of what each side did are fundamentally different, and treating them as equivalent obscures who is actually responsible for the catastrophe along the 817-kilometer border that has killed at least 149 people and displaced 640,000 civilians.
Cambodia lit a match. What Thailand did next broke international law.
This investigation separates two distinct questions. Who created the conditions for this war? Cambodia did — through political sabotage, a $12.5 billion criminal economy, and indiscriminate rocket fire. Who made it catastrophic? Thailand did — through disproportionate force, systematic rejection of every peaceful alternative, post-ceasefire occupation, and the conversion of a border crisis into an election vehicle.
Creating conditions for a war and waging one illegally are different categories of culpability. The second is worse.
Accepted
What Cambodia Did
And why it matters — but why it does not justify what followedAny honest account of this conflict must begin with Cambodia's provocations. They are documented not by Thai propaganda but by FinCEN, OFAC, the State Department's Trafficking in Persons Report, and Amnesty International. They are serious.
The scam empire
Cambodia hosts more than 300 scam compounds where at least 100,000 trafficked individuals are enslaved, running romance scams and "pig butchering" operations that generate $12.5 billion annually — roughly half the country's formal GDP. In May 2025, FinCEN identified Huione Group as a "financial institution of primary money laundering concern," finding it had laundered at least $4 billion, including $37 million for North Korea's Lazarus Group. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called Huione "the marketplace of choice for malicious cyber actors."
The critical connection: Hun To, nephew of former PM Hun Sen and cousin of current PM Hun Manet, appeared as a major shareholder and director of Huione Pay. In a coordinated U.S.-UK action in October, OFAC sanctioned 146 targets in the Prince Group criminal network, led by Chen Zhi, who had served as adviser to both Hun Manet and Hun Sen. Separately, the O'Smach Resort and its owner, Senator Ly Yong Phat, were sanctioned for forced labor. That same resort would later be bombed by Thai fighter jets.
The phone call that broke a government
On June 15, 2025, Thai PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra — the youngest in Thai history and only the second woman to hold the office — called Hun Sen through an intermediary. She called him "uncle." She described her own army commander as being "on the opposing side." She offered to "take care of anything you need." Hun Sen recorded the call and released it publicly three days later. Bangkok's stock exchange fell 4.17 percent over three days. Paetongtarn's coalition collapsed that evening. She was suspended in July and removed in August.
The East Asia Forum concluded that Cambodia's leadership "engineered a border crisis" in response to Thai casino legalization and the scam crackdown. Simultaneously, Hun Sen recalled 400,000 migrant workers from Thailand, crippling its agriculture and construction sectors.
This was an act of deliberate political warfare that destroyed the one faction in Thai politics capable of de-escalation.
Rockets on Thai civilians
During the July fighting, Cambodian BM-21 rockets struck residential neighborhoods, a hospital, and a gas station in Thailand's Sisaket province. Fourteen civilians were killed, including children aged 15 and 8. This was a clear violation of international humanitarian law, regardless of what provoked the fighting.
Suppression of dissent
Cambodia arrested at least 16 people for expressing views about the conflict, including three journalists. One was arrested for live-streaming interviews with displaced villagers. An activist in a wheelchair was arrested for Facebook posts. HRW documented the crackdowns in detail.
These are real and serious provocations. Cambodia engineered a political crisis, protected a criminal economy, and used indiscriminate weapons against civilians. This investigation does not minimize these facts.
But provocation is not permission. Under international law, what matters is not only who struck first but whether the response was necessary, proportionate, and consistent with the obligation to pursue peaceful alternatives. On every one of those tests, Thailand fails. What follows is the evidence.
How Thailand Made It Catastrophic
The response that broke international lawI. Proportionality: F-16s for a landmine
On July 23, 2025, a Thai soldier stepped on an anti-personnel landmine. Within 24 hours, Thailand deployed F-16 fighter jets in combat for the first time since 1988, launched airstrikes across 12 border sites, used cluster munitions in populated areas, and displaced over 300,000 civilians.
Article 51 of the UN Charter permits self-defense in response to an armed attack. The ICJ held in the Nicaragua case that self-defense must be "proportional to the armed attack and necessary to respond to it." Only the "most grave forms" of attack qualify.
A landmine injury to one soldier, escalated within hours into an air campaign involving fighter jets and cluster munitions across a broad front, fails any proportionality test recognized in international law.
In December, another landmine injured two soldiers. Thailand responded with Operation Sattawat — a named ground offensive deploying tanks, F-16s, Gripens, and a naval blockade. Towns and strategic hills inside Cambodia were seized.
Cambodia's military budget is roughly $1.3 billion. Thailand's is $5.7 billion. Thailand has 360,000 active armed forces, 400 battle tanks, and 1,200 armored personnel carriers. Video from the front showed Cambodian soldiers in t-shirts and flip-flops against a professional military with precision-guided munitions. This is not a commentary on who "deserved" to win. It is a statement about proportionality under international humanitarian law.
II. Cluster munitions: a 10-year-old boy is dead
After initially denying Cambodia's claims, a Thai military spokesperson acknowledged on July 25 that cluster munitions had been used, stating they could be deployed "when necessary." Human Rights Watch called any use in populated areas "unlawfully indiscriminate."
In October, a 10-year-old boy named Sern Sovann died after picking up an unexploded M-85 submunition from a field near his home in Preah Vihear province. The Cambodian Mine Action Centre confirmed it was fired by Thailand during July. The 2025 Cluster Munition Monitor listed Thailand alongside Russia and Myanmar among countries using these weapons. That year, 100 percent of cluster munition casualties worldwide were civilians. Nearly half were children.
III. Sovereignty: the question nobody asked
Thailand reframed its December military campaign as a "war against the scam army." CSIS noted the framing was "strategically brilliant." It was also legally vacuous.
Thailand's actions on its own soil — cutting telecom, blocking fuel, arresting operators — were sovereign acts. Aggressive, but legal.
The moment Thailand bombed targets inside Cambodia, Article 2(4) of the UN Charter applies: the use of force against another state is prohibited except with Security Council authorization or in self-defense under Article 51.
Criminal enterprises are not an armed attack. Thai citizens losing billions to scams is a law enforcement problem, not a casus belli. If this standard held, the United States could bomb Mexican cartel compounds. India could strike Pakistani militant camps.
Thailand attempted to bridge the gap by claiming scam compounds were simultaneously criminal and military facilities. CSIS noted the "military use of these sites remains contested." Even if the dual-use claim were true, it does not resolve the proportionality problem. Inside these compounds were thousands of trafficking victims — people the UN Human Rights Chief had specifically urged be evacuated. There is no evidence any evacuation occurred before the strikes. Thailand bombed buildings full of enslaved people while claiming to fight on their behalf.
IV. Mediation refusal: the most damning pattern
This investigation finds that Thailand's systematic rejection of every mechanism for peaceful resolution is its most legally significant act.
Cambodia, by contrast, petitioned the ICJ, requested a UN Security Council session, agreed to every ASEAN mediation proposal, accepted both ceasefire frameworks, endorsed Malaysia and the U.S. as monitors, and called for Joint Boundary Commission technical work.
Under the UN Charter, states have an obligation to settle disputes by peaceful means (Article 2(3)). Self-defense under Article 51 requires that force be necessary — meaning no less harmful alternative exists.
When you refuse every less harmful alternative offered by the United States, China, Malaysia, ASEAN, and the United Nations, the necessity claim collapses. You cannot argue that bombing was your only option when you told every mediator on earth to go away.
V. Post-ceasefire occupation
The December 27 ceasefire ended active hostilities. Under customary international law, occupation may be proportionate only while a threat persists. Once an armed attack has been halted, "ongoing occupation is no longer necessary."
Yet as of mid-February 2026, Thai forces remain in 14 areas inside Cambodia. Reuters reports razor wire and shipping containers blocking access to 292 hectares of residential land in Banteay Meanchey province. Over 1,300 houses are affected. Approximately 4,600 people remain unable to return home.
On February 2, Thailand led FBI agents and foreign military attachés to inspect scam compound sites in O'Smach, 397 meters inside Cambodian territory, without consent. Cambodia called it their "strongest protest" ever. Thailand conducted law enforcement on another country's sovereign soil, with foreign officials present, without permission.
Anutin's post-election promise to build a permanent wall confirms what the occupation suggests: Thailand is not preparing to leave.
VI. Ghost sounds on sleeping children
For four consecutive nights in October 2025, a Thai nationalist influencer, with official permission from the Thai Army's First Army Area command, positioned high-powered loudspeakers at the border and blasted wailing ghost sounds, funeral music, and fighter jet noises into the Cambodian villages of Prey Chan and Chouk Chey from approximately 10:44 p.m. until after 3:00 a.m.
The villages are home to over 3,000 people, including infants, pregnant women, and elderly residents. A one-year-old boy became fearful at night. Psychologists warned of lasting developmental harm in children under five. Thailand's own Office of the Attorney-General warned the broadcasts could violate the Convention Against Torture.
Anutin said it wouldn't hurt Thailand's credibility.
Separately, Thai soldiers were filmed marching across Cambodian farmland while reciting a nationalist poem. A Thai colonel said it proved "wherever Thai soldiers step is Thai territory." It was, legally, Cambodian land.
VII. The war as an election strategy
On December 12, as F-16s were bombing Cambodian positions and half a million civilians were fleeing, Anutin dissolved parliament and called snap elections. Political analysts noted he was "timing his move to ride a surge in nationalist sentiment."
His campaign slogan was effectively a promise to fight: "I promise to safeguard Thailand with my life. Just choose Bhumjaithai to guard the country."
Move Forward: 151 seats. Progressive, anti-military. Won plurality but blocked from government, then dissolved by court.
Bhumjaithai: 70 seats. Conservative.
Progressive movement surging. Military establishment on defensive.
Bhumjaithai: 194 seats. Tripled. First conservative victory this century.
People's Party: 116. Collapsed from predecessor's 151.
Progressives crushed. Military ascendant. Turnout at 30-year low.
ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute's Fulcrum captured the structural significance: "The renewed clashes cannot be understood simply as a contested border dispute. The resurgence of military confrontation reveals a deeper structural dynamic: the instrumentalisation of nationalism for domestic political survival in Thailand."
The conflict accomplished what 13 coups since 1932 had always achieved through other means: cementing the royalist-military establishment's grip on Thai politics. This time through a ballot box, making it far harder to reverse. CNN reported the new government may be "more stable, but I don't think necessarily more democratic." The day after the election, 44 progressive lawmakers were found guilty of trying to amend the lese-majesté law. Ten were newly elected. They face lifetime bans.
The Verdict
Culpability assessed by category| Category | Primary Responsibility | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| Engineering the political crisis | Cambodia | Hun Sen's leak of the phone call, the worker recall, and protection of the scam economy were deliberate political warfare that destroyed Thailand's de-escalation faction. |
| Criminal economy enabling conflict | Cambodia | $12.5B scam industry with documented ruling-family ties (Huione, Chen Zhi, Ly Yong Phat) created the conditions for confrontation. |
| Military escalation & proportionality | Thailand | F-16 airstrikes, cluster munitions, named ground offensives, naval blockade, and seizure of towns in response to landmine incidents. Wildly disproportionate. |
| Blocking peaceful resolution | Thailand | Rejected mediation from U.S., China, Malaysia, ASEAN, the ICJ, and the UN. Suspended the peace accord. Said "we don't have to listen to anyone." Cambodia pursued every mechanism offered. |
| Post-ceasefire behavior | Thailand | 14 areas occupied. Razor wire and shipping containers blocking villages. FBI tour on Cambodian soil without consent. Border wall plans. Entrenchment, not de-escalation. |
| Civilian harm | Both | Cambodia: BM-21 rockets on hospital, homes, gas station. Thailand: cluster munitions killing a child, bombing trafficking victims, ghost sounds terrorizing villages, 1,168 schools closed. |
| Domestic political exploitation | Thailand | Parliament dissolved during active bombing. Election won on nationalist war rhetoric. Conflict converted into conservative political realignment. |
| Cultural heritage destruction | Thailand | Damage at 142+ locations in Preah Vihear temple (UNESCO World Heritage). Nearly all major structures hit in December. Violations of the 1954 Hague Convention. |
“A more sober-minded perspective of this conflict is it is an internal Thai struggle that has invited the leveraging of long-simmering historical tensions.”
Cambodia created the conditions for this war. It built a criminal empire, destroyed the Thai government that might have prevented escalation, and used rockets that killed children.
But there is a difference between lighting a match and burning down a neighborhood while blocking the fire trucks.
Thailand responded to provocations with wildly disproportionate force. It used cluster munitions that killed a child. It bombed compounds full of trafficking victims without evacuating them. It rejected every form of mediation and legal adjudication offered by anyone on earth. It launched named military offensives and seized territory inside a sovereign country. It terrorized sleeping children with ghost sounds under official military sanction. It dissolved parliament during active combat and converted the conflict into an election platform. And it is now occupying Cambodian land, blocking civilians from their homes, and planning a permanent wall — all while claiming self-defense.
On who created this crisis: Cambodia, clearly.
On who escalated it, sustained it, obstructed its resolution, and exploited it for domestic power: Thailand, overwhelmingly.
The People Between the Wire
98,000 still displacedAs of early February, nearly 98,000 people remain displaced according to World Vision. Over 51,000 are women. Over 31,000 are children. Forty-eight schools and 22 health facilities remain closed in Cambodia. At the height of the December fighting, 1,168 Thai schools and 1,039 Cambodian schools were shut, disrupting education for nearly a quarter million students. Some families returned home, found unexploded ordnance in their fields, and went back to the camps.
The trafficking victims inside the bombed scam compounds occupied a position of unique horror: enslaved by criminal enterprises, bombed by a foreign military that claimed to be liberating them, and invisible in every diplomatic communiqué that followed. These were people who had been kidnapped, had their passports confiscated, and were being forced to defraud strangers under threat of torture. Their reward was to be bombed by a country claiming to fight on their behalf.
Anutin won his election with 194 seats. Hun Sen protected his scam empire. The Thai military reasserted its dominance through a ballot box instead of a tank. Trump declared victory. Twice. Neither declaration stopped the fighting.
Proeung Sopheap, 59, went home to collect her cooking utensils and found razor wire where her village used to be.
That is the story of this war. And it is not over.